Think the NHL playoff picture is starting to take shape by Thanksgiving? Think again! This year, that age-old hockey adage about Thanksgiving standings predicting playoff berths is facing its biggest challenge yet. For years, we've heard that if your team is in a playoff spot on Turkey Day, their chances of making the playoffs are significantly higher. In fact, since 2013-14, a whopping 77% of teams holding a playoff position at Thanksgiving have gone on to secure a playoff berth. But here's where it gets controversial... this year, the Eastern Conference is a tightly wound pressure cooker, where the traditional Thanksgiving indicator might just crumble under the pressure.
Remember that graphic showing the standings on Thanksgiving? The Pittsburgh Penguins, for example, were technically in a playoff spot. But and this is the part most people miss they were also just four points away from being dead last in their division! And it wasn't just the Penguins; the entire Eastern Conference was separated by a mere nine points from first to sixteenth place. That's an incredibly tight race! What does this mean for the Thanksgiving playoff indicator? Well, it could mean it's practically useless this season. The extreme parity across the league, especially in the East, throws a huge wrench into the predictive power of Thanksgiving standings.
Instead of seeing Thanksgiving as a playoff predictor, perhaps it's more accurate to view it as a playoff eliminator. As of now, maybe only the Buffalo Sabres in the East look to be in serious trouble of falling completely out of contention. The rest of the teams are racking up enough overtime points to maintain some semblance of hope and relevance as we head into December. The current NHL scoring system, with its emphasis on awarding points for overtime losses, inadvertently contributes to this parity. Teams are incentivized to play cautiously and defensively to secure at least one point, further compressing the standings.
Looking ahead, it'll be fascinating to reassess the standings around Christmas or New Year's. By then, the season will be nearly halfway complete, and hopefully, some separation will start to emerge. But even then, given how things have unfolded thus far, nothing is guaranteed.
Let's zoom in on the Metropolitan Division as a prime example of this chaotic landscape. The Penguins, after losing to Columbus recently, were almost in last place! Had that game gone the other way, they would have been sitting at the bottom of the division. Pittsburgh does have a game in hand, but still, this illustrates just how precarious things are and why the Thanksgiving marker holds less weight than ever in the East. A team could go from a playoff spot on Thursday to the basement of the division just a few hours later!
This situation also highlights the critical importance of divisional games. The Penguins, for instance, only have one divisional matchup in the next four weeks, a game against the Philadelphia Flyers. That game is a must-win or at least a "must-get-to-overtime" scenario given the congested standings. It's not just close; it's fiercely competitive. Every team in the division has more points than games played, putting them all on pace for 82+ points at this stage of the season. Some of these teams have had to fight tooth and nail to get there, but they're hanging in the mix.
So, how long can this incredible parity last? That's the million-dollar question on everyone's mind. Injuries will inevitably become a factor as the season wears on. This week alone, Kyle Palmieri of the Islanders went down with a torn ACL, and the Rangers are dealing with a potential injury to Adam Fox. The Penguins have been struggling with injuries to key players like Rickard Rakell and Justin Brazeau, which has contributed to their recent slide back into the pack. The Washington Capitals are managing injuries to Pierre-Luc Dubois and Nic Dowd, but they've managed to stay afloat with a recent winning streak.
Usually, by Thanksgiving, with roughly 30% of the season complete, a clear picture starts to emerge. Teams with strong starts can begin to see a promising path forward. However, that might not be the case this year, given the extreme competitiveness and closeness of the standings. Things could remain tight right down to the wire, with teams jostling for position throughout the entire season. For better or worse, this is the intended consequence of the NHL's scoring system and the prevalence of overtime games, where teams prioritize securing at least one point by staying tied through regulation.
What do you think? Is the Thanksgiving playoff indicator dead this year, or will it hold true despite the incredible parity? Which teams do you believe are most likely to defy the odds and either make or miss the playoffs, regardless of their Thanksgiving position? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
