Who will win the Preakness Stakes? Horses, odds, expert picks and more for 2024 Triple Crown race | Sporting News (2024)

Triple Crown winners have been rare across horse racing's centuries-long history, but it's seemingly becoming rarer and rarer for a horse to even have a shot at completing the incredible feat.

Case in point, the last time a horse won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in the same year was Justify in 2018. Granted, Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner that season, but since then, no horse has run the Belmont Stakes with a chance to make history.

Mystik Dan will look to change that in 2024. He won the Kentucky Derby in a photo finish and will now look to emerge from the eight-horse Preakness field victoriously. He is expected to fare well, and with his top competition — Bob Baffert-trained colt Muth — he may have a chance to win again.

Either way, Mystik Dan's presence will create a buzz around Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. History buffs will be hoping he can capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown while others will be backing Muth, or others in the field, during the "Run for the Black-Eyed Susans."

But which horse should you trust to win the Preakness Stakes in 2024?The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets for the Triple Crown race.

MORE: Everything to know about Preakness horses in 2024

Preakness Stakes odds 2024

It shouldn't surprise anyone to see the Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (5-2)among the favorites to win the Preakness. He won in a photo finish at the Run for the Roses, but his performance will inspire hope that he can do even better in the shortest Triple Crown race.

Muth originally opened as the favorite with 8-5 odds and was expected to provideMystik Dan with his toughest competition. The Bob Baffert-trained colt was unable to run the Kentucky Derby because of the trainer's ban from the event, and he will be held out of the Preakness as he recovers from a fever.

Muth's withdrawal will cull the Preakness field to just eight horses. It will also move Mystik Dan from the No. 5 gate to the No. 4 gate.

Below is a look at the full odds to win the Preakness Stakes, via the Maryland Jockey Club.

MORE: Explaining the origin of Mystik Dan's name

Preakness Stakes expert picks

The Preakness Stakes is the shortest of the Triple Crown races at 1 3/16 miles. That will favor horses that start well and possess quality speed a bit more than the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. It's tougher to overcome a bad start on a shorter track — even if a racehorse has great stamina.

The good news is that fewer horses are in the Preakness field than the Kentucky Derby. That will give each horse more space in which to operate and position themselves for the stretch run. And those with great closing burst will be able to compete for a win.

One last thing: It's important to remember that the Kentucky Derby results aren't always predictive of success at the Preakness. And better-rested horses may ultimately have an advantage in this race considering the Preakness is run just two weeks after the rigorous Run for the Roses.

Best bets to win the Preakness Stakes 2024

The best way to profit at the Preakness is to back the horses with the best speed. Muth and Mystik Dan figure to be those horses, but betting both favorites wasn't an advisable strategy given their short odds to win.

Muth's withdrawal makes it easier to trustMystik Dan (5-2)as the top horse in the field. While he may be a bit more fatigued than the other horses, having run the rigorous Derby two weeks earlier, his maximum Equibase speed figure of 109 is among the best in the field. Muth's mark of 115 could have challenged it, so his absence looms large for Mystik Dan.

The last three Preakness winners have had Equibase figures of 103 or lower. Thus, even if Mystik Dan runs at a slightly slower pace than he did at the Kentucky Derby, he should be positioned to contend for the title at Pilmico.

Those looking for a value pick to win the Preakness can look no further than Imagination (6-1). He has never finished worse than second in six career starts and has two wins under his belt. His career-high 104 Equibase speed figure is below that of Muth (115) and Mystik Dan (109 at the Kentucky Derby), but it is plenty fast enough to keep him in contention at the Preakness.

And if Mystik Dan is tired after his Kentucky Derby win, Imagination may have just enough steam to do what the horses at Churchill Downs couldn't do: edge out Mystik Dan at the finish line.

MORE: Who is Brian Hernandez? What to know about Mystik Dan's jockey

What is the best post position in horse racing?

There is no true best post position in horse racing. The benefits of each position vary depending on the length of the race and the horse running from each gate.

Typically, horses that like more space will prefer to be in the high-numbered posts for a race. That allows them to have space to their outside shoulder and stay away from traffic that could squeeze them out of lanes. Additionally, those in the outside posts spend less time in the starting gate, which is a benefit for skittish horses.

That said, the shortest path to victory comes alongside the rail. That makes the No. 1 gate an asset for horses that don't mind running in tightly-packed conditions. But for claustrophobic horses, that spot is a nightmare. They have to wait inside the gate longer and have no escape from traffic and the rail on either side.

Those horses may get nervous and stray from the pack while trying to find space. That typically leads to the horses hanging back — unless their jockeys can ride them to an early lead and put some space in front of them.

Knowing this, it's no surprise that the Preakness Stakes has had a wide distribution of winners over its history. Each of the first eight gates has produced at least 10 winners. The No. 6 spot has been the most favorable gate, producing 16 winners since the starting gate was first implemented in 1909. The Nos. 4 and 7 gates are close behind, both having produced 14 winners each.

Here is the complete list of Preakness Stakes winners at each post position:

Preakness Stakes winners by post position

The Preakness Stakes implemented a starting gate in 1909. Since then, every gate numbered 1-13 has produced a winner with Gates 1-8 all producing at least 10 over the 114 races run since 1909.

National Treasure won the Preakness Stakes in 2023. The Bob Baffert colt ran along the rail to victory in a seven-horse race. He was the fourth winner to come out of the No. 1 gate since 2015, joining American Pharaoh, War of Will, and Rombauer as winners of the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

Below is a list of all of the Preakness winners by gate since 1909:

*Preakness divided

1 — (13)

2 — (12)

3 — (12)

4 — (14)

5 — (13)

6 — (16)

7 — (14)

8 — (10)

9 — (4)

10 — (2)

11 — (2)

12 — (3)

13 — (1)